Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 77% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Coritiba FBC host SE Palmeiras in a Brasileirão Série A fixture scheduled for 22 July, with the market focused on the *more markets* slate rather than the match result itself. Public fixtures and match pages place kick-off at 22:30 local listing time, and one preview identifies the venue as the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, which matters because traders often model ancillary markets differently when home advantage, travel, and lineup news are still pending.[3][4]
A **0% YES** crowd price on “more markets” usually reads less like a football opinion and more like a structure problem: this is the kind of market that can stay pinned if the platform has not yet opened the specific derivative questions, or if the available contract set is effectively untradeable until the event moves closer. For power users running bots or conditional orders, the practical comparison is with previous match-day listings where liquidity only appeared after line-ups, weather, and settlement rules were populated; without that metadata, automated systems tend to treat the market as dormant rather than mispriced.[1][2]
What to watch is not just team news, but the sequencing of dependencies: fixture confirmation, line-up release, and whether the exchange or prediction market adds further sub-markets before kick-off. A recent match boxscore page also framed the contest as a standard Serie A game with totals and win prices already attached, which suggests that the underlying event is real and schedulable, even if the “more markets” contract itself remains at zero.[5] In a programmatic workflow, that means polling for market expansion, checking settlement text for scope, and only then deciding whether the zero price reflects absence of product or a genuine no-fill signal.[6]
Methodology
We track Coritiba FBC vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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