Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Paranaense 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Paranaense 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Paranaense (-1.5) | 13% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| CA Paranaense (-2.5) | 1% |
| Botafogo FR (-1.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FR (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Botafogo hosted CA Paranaense in a Série A match scheduled for 24 August at Estádio Nilton Santos, with listings placing kick-off at 23:00 UTC / 7:00 pm ET and the fixture already deep into Round 24. Public pre-match prices in comparable match previews sat well away from an extreme outcome, which is the right lens for a 0% crowd-implied probability: treat it as a tail event that would need a very specific market-moving trigger rather than a normal baseline. The earlier head-to-head data also points to a genuine contest rather than a one-way setup, including a 4-1 Paranaense win in March 2026 and a narrower Botafogo home result in prior seasons. [2][8][14]
For a power-user running this programmatically, the main checks are whether the match actually completed inside the settlement window, whether the market’s “more markets” wrapper included all sub-markets, and whether any official line-up, postponement, or suspension notices were published before kick-off. The most practical inputs are the fixture state, referee assignment, live broadcast timing, and any late schedule changes, because those are the dependencies that can flip a related market from dormant to live or from void to settled. Goal’s match page confirmed the venue, kick-off time and broadcast availability, while live score pages showed the fixture as active around the scheduled time, which is the sort of state your bot would poll before placing conditional orders or copying exposure. [1][13][4]
Methodology
This page reviews Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense - More Markets on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →