Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 4 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Game Spread +/-7.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov. This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Jurij Rodionov in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik'…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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