Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 Winner | 65% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 Winner | 63% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 36.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Game Spread +/-4.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 38.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 40% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 71% probability to us open atp: jiri lehecka vs toby samuel. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Toby Samuel in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel on Kalshi Fees
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