Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 22.5 | 87% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini | 54% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of cincinnati open: jiri lehecka vs matteo berrettini. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Matteo Berrettini in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini on Kalshi Fees
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