Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy | 96% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 2 Winner | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 3 Winner | 77% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Game Spread +/-6.5 | 59% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 4 Winner | 35% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Match O/U 36.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: lloyd harris vs jack kennedy. This market refers to the tennis match between Lloyd Harris and Jack Kennedy in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lloyd Harris' if …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Jack Kennedy on Kalshi Fees
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