National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante is a first-round tennis meeting at the National Bank Open, with the market currently implying a **0% YES** chance that Chan advances. For a programme that watches odds mechanically, that is the kind of print that usually reflects either a data gap or a very lopsided pairing rather than a genuinely impossible outcome; Chan’s public record is still thin, with ATP-level results showing no main-draw wins and only limited career prize money, while wider player databases place him around the Challenger/ITF fringe rather than at established tour level.[1][2][4][13]

Comparable cases with players at that end of the distribution often move sharply once the draw is confirmed, because the key input is not reputation alone but whether the match is actually played and under what conditions. Chan’s results profile is modest but not empty: college and lower-tier records show winning seasons, and his hard-court samples are small enough that a single set, retirement or walkover can matter more to settlement logic than pre-match ranking models would suggest.[3][5][6][9]

For traders using bots, copy-trading, or conditional orders, the practical watchlist is straightforward: official tournament scheduling, any order-of-play change, injury or withdrawal notes, and whether the match starts before the settlement window closes. If the fixture is postponed past the seven-day threshold, or never begins, the market resolves 50-50 under the stated rules, so programmatic strategies should separate “player strength” from “event occurrence” and treat late updates from the National Bank Open and ATP draw pages as higher priority than stale price signals.[7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.