Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar. This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Zdenek Kolar in the Swiss Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel …
Methodology
We track Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar on Kalshi Fees
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