Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Central Córdoba O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Central Córdoba 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Central Córdoba (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Central Córdoba 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Central Córdoba and San Lorenzo met in Primera División play on 3 August in Santiago del Estero, with the fixture listed at 8:15 pm ET and the market settling on the “more markets” layer rather than a single match outcome. For a programme that ingests event feeds, this is the sort of market where the best read starts with the match node itself: if the game is moved, delayed, or reclassified, the ancillary markets can reprice fast even when the headline result market looks quiet.[2][13]
The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES is best read as *no verified trigger yet*, not as a statement about the football. Recent head-to-head data points to a low-scoring, tight profile: the last meetings have typically produced one or two goals, with San Lorenzo edging the most recent league game 1-0 and the broader series remaining evenly balanced rather than one-sided.[10][12][16] In a bot or copy-trading setup, that means conditional logic should not rely on historical scorelines alone; it should wait for the exchange to publish the specific “more markets” prompt, because the probability can stay pinned at zero until the market definition is activated.
The catalysts to watch are operational, not tactical: official team sheets, kick-off confirmation, any schedule shift, and whether the platform flags additional sub-markets before or after the opening whistle. Fixture pages from major sports data sites all place the game on the same evening and venue, so the main dependency is not the date but the market plumbing around it.[1][2][5][13] Programmatically, a trader would monitor the event status feed, compare settlement language against the listed kickoff, and only then route orders or hedges, because a zero-per-cent reading often reflects missing market availability rather than a true consensus view.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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