Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 66% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of united states vs. belgium - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews United States vs. Belgium - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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