Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
15% | 85% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
15% | 85% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco | 15% |
| Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco | 12% |
| Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco | 10% |
| Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco | 10% |
| Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco | 9% |
| Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco | 8% |
| Any Other Score | 8% |
| Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco | 7% |
| Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco | 6% |
| Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco | 5% |
| Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco | 4% |
| Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco | 4% |
| Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco | 3% |
| Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco | 2% |
| Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco | 2% |
| Netherlands 0 - 3 Morocco | 1% |
| Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 15% chance of netherlands vs. morocco - exact score. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Netherlands…
Methodology
We track Netherlands vs. Morocco - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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