Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 38% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for England vs. DR Congo - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade England vs. DR Congo - Player Props on Kalshi Fees
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