Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 82% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 66% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 52% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Australia and Egypt, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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