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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi Fees.

Match Winner 70% Game 1 Winner 67% Game 2 Winner 66% Any Player Rampage 51% Volume: $483K Liquidity: $470K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner70%
Game 1 Winner67%
Game 2 Winner66%
Any Player Rampage51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?50%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)48%
O/U 2.5 Games43%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 70% probability to dota 2: team spirit vs team liquid (bo3) - esports world cup survival. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Team Spirit and Team Liquid in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 15 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team …

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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