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Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Map 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 100% Volume: $171K Liquidity: $430K Closes: 27 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-6.5) vs Misa Esports (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs Misa Esports (+9.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-6.5) vs Misa Esports (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

The Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Black Phoenix and Misa Esports in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 27 at 10:00AM ET. …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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