Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| O/U 39.5 | 82% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 72% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| UConn O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| UConn O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| UConn 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UConn 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| UConn O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| UConn 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH) | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 30.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 18% |
| O/U 67.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of uconn vs. miami (oh). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between UConn and Miami (OH), scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UConn" if UConn win the game. This market …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $164K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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