Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 18.5 | 94% |
| O/U 20.5 | 93% |
| O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 26.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| Michigan O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 32.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| O/U 34.5 | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| Iowa O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Michigan O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Iowa O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| Iowa O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| 1H Moneyline | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -0.5 | 34% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 48.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
Market context
The Iowa vs. Michigan prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Iowa and Michigan, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $255K.
Methodology
We track Iowa vs. Michigan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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