Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: trevor svajda vs elias ymer. This market refers to the tennis match between Trevor Svajda and Elias Ymer in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We track Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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