Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Curitiba: Jose Pereira vs Mateus Cardoso Alves Game Spread +/-5.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of curitiba: jose pereira vs mateus cardoso alves. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jose Pereira and Mateus Cardoso Alves in the Curitiba, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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