Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri. This market refers to the tennis match between Guy Den Ouden and Genaro Alberto Olivieri in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro … on Kalshi Fees
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