Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet | 77% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 54% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 Winner | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, los cabos open: jenson brooksby vs corentin moutet stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jenson Brooksby and Corentin Moutet in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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