Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 84% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry | 62% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 21.5 | 61% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 2 Winner | 59% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 Winner | 57% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 23% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: nuno borges vs tomas etcheverry stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Tomas Etcheverry in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry on Kalshi Fees
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