Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The underlying event is whether Solana’s Binance 1-minute candle high for SOL/USDT on a specified date in late December 2025 exceeds every prior 1-minute high recorded since the asset’s listing. This is a binary test of new all-time highs on a major exchange, resolved strictly by Binance’s official high-price data.
Historically, Solana’s all-time high on Binance was set on 19 January 2025 at $294.33, with recent trading hovering near $71–$72, reflecting a 50% drop over the past year[3][5]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with this steep decline and the absence of any sustained upward momentum in the last 12 months[3]. Comparable cases show that new all-time highs typically follow major network upgrades or institutional inflows, neither of which have materialised recently.
Traders should monitor scheduled Catalysts such as the Solana Breakpoint conference (September 2025), potential ETF approvals, and Layer 1 ecosystem grants. A recent Binance Square post notes SOL’s constant fluctuation with broader crypto markets, underscoring dependency on Bitcoin’s trajectory and macro liquidity conditions[4]. Programmatically, this market is best approached by scripting a bot to fetch Binance’s 1-minute candle highs via their API, compare them against the historical peak, and flag any breach in real time. Conditional orders could be set to trigger only if the high exceeds $295, ensuring precision without manual oversight.
Methodology
We track Solana all time high by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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