Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup group-stage match between Senegal and Iraq at Toronto Stadium on 26 June 2026 is the real-world event driving the "Exact Score" prediction market, where a 4% crowd-implied probability suggests the listed outcome is a low-probability event. Senegal, ranked 15th globally, faces Iraq, ranked 57th, in a contest where historical data shows Senegal winning four of their last five encounters against Iraq with an average of 1.6 points per match[2][5]. This fixture represents Iraq’s third group-stage game, following losses to Norway and France, while Senegal remains unbeaten in their opening two matches at MetLife Stadium[3].

For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools or copy-trading bots, the current 4% probability must be contextualised against comparable World Cup group matches where a top-20 nation faced a top-60 opponent; such games often produce exact scores like 2-0 or 3-1, which align with Senegal’s eight clean sheets in their last ten international wins[2]. Programmatically, a trader would set a conditional order to enter only if live odds drift beyond 5%, using the pre-match spread of -1.5 for Senegal as a baseline for expected goal differential[1]. The market’s settlement window ending at 19:00 UTC on 26 June means any delay in the 3:00 PM ET kickoff would keep the market open, requiring automated monitoring of the official FIFA match centre for real-time updates[7].

Key catalysts to watch include Iraq’s pre-match training session footage, which may reveal player fitness levels ahead of the clash[6], and any official line-up announcements confirming whether Senegal’s key attackers are available. Recent reports confirm Iraq’s group-stage schedule and venue details, with the match set at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), where ticket prices start at $576, indicating high demand[3][4]. Traders should monitor ESPN’s live score feed for early goal trends, as Senegal’s 80% total points over rate in recent matches suggests a high-scoring potential that could invalidate the listed exact score if the game exceeds 3.5 goals[1][5]. No moralising is needed; the facts show a clear mismatch in ranking and recent form, making the 4% probability a data-driven assessment rather than speculation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.