Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture between Egypt and IR Iran, set for 11:00 PM ET on 26 June in Seattle, is a decisive Group G clash where both nations remain unbeaten after two rounds. This match determines the group top spot, with the outcome resolving strictly on the 90-minute regulation score, excluding extra time or penalties.

Historically, exact-score markets in tight World Cup group games often cluster around low-probability draws or narrow wins, mirroring the Opta supercomputer’s simulation where a 2–2 draw is the next most likely result after an Egypt win[1][2]. The current 16% crowd-implied probability for an exact score aligns with comparable cases where defensive resilience from both sides limits goal variance, yet the high stakes of securing Group G top spot increase the likelihood of a decisive, albeit rare, final scoreline[1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and the referee’s disciplinary tendencies, as Szymon Marciniak’s strict style could influence stoppage time and penalty frequency[6]. Recent training footage confirms Egypt’s clinical attacking edge is fully operational, while Iran’s legendary defensive structure remains intact, suggesting a catalyst for volatility if either side concedes early[5][7]. The Opta model envisages a tight contest with Egypt as slight favourites, meaning conditional orders on exact scores should weight the 2–2 and 1–1 outcomes heavily against the draw probability[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.