Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to outbound commercial shipping, with zero verified vessel movements recorded over the past 72 hours as of late June 2026. This severe bottleneck has halted the transit of tankers, dry bulk, and container ships, creating an alarming absence of live traffic through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The current 89% crowd-implied probability that transit calls will return to a 7-day average of 60 or above by December 31 hinges entirely on whether this blockade is lifted before the settlement window closes.

Historically, the strait has experienced brief reopenings followed by immediate closures, such as the 24-hour window on April 21, 2026, which ended the next day. These patterns suggest that transient diplomatic gestures rarely sustain the throughput required to meet the market’s threshold of 60 daily arrivals. A power-user approaching this programmatically would note that the 7-day moving average metric is highly sensitive; even a week of sustained traffic could trigger a “Yes,” but the current zero-flow baseline makes such a recovery statistically improbable without a major geopolitical shift.

Traders must monitor Iran-linked diplomatic announcements and peace talk status, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening. Recent Reuters reporting on 23 June confirmed that 57 Iran-linked ships have transited since the date, yet this volume remains insufficient to sustain the required 7-day average of 60 arrivals consistently [9]. Conditional orders should be tied to real-time dashboards like HormuzTracking.com, which provide machine-readable data on outbound movements, allowing automated systems to detect the first sustained breach of the 60-arrival threshold [1]. Without a confirmed, multi-week reopening, the market’s high probability appears detached from the current operational reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.