How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **6.5+ earthquake** can happen anywhere on Earth in a one-week window, so the cleanest way to read this market is as a global event-count problem rather than a “will there be one?” bet. The current **95% YES** crowd view is consistent with the fact that the USGS’s own significant-earthquake list for 2026 already shows multiple M6.5+ events this year, including a 6.8 in Kyushu on 28 July, a 6.5 off Mindanao on 26 June, and a 7.2 in Venezuela on 24 June.[1][12]

For framing comparable cases, traders typically anchor on the background rate of major quakes rather than recent headlines: in 2026, the USGS M6+ world list and other earthquake catalogues have already logged several events at or above the threshold, with the year’s catalogue showing repeated 6.5+ shocks across Japan, the Philippines, Kamchatka and South America.[6][3][12] In practice, a programmatic approach would poll the USGS event API or search endpoint with a magnitude floor of 6.5 and the market’s date window, then de-duplicate by event time and final magnitude revision before counting.

The main catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but late scientific bookkeeping: USGS events can be revised, relabelled or added after the initial alert, and the market notes it may stay open past settlement if a qualifying quake has occurred but has not yet appeared on the source.[8] That matters because the count here depends on the final USGS record, not a social feed or headline summary. A real-time earthquake tracker reported no M6+ quakes in the latest daily snapshot on 9 August, which is useful only as a short-lag check; the binding reference remains the USGS catalogue for the exact window.[5][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.