Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks Elon Musk’s main feed posts, quote posts and reposts on X between 12:00 PM ET on 11 July and 12:00 PM ET on 13 July 2026, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed. The settlement closes at 16:00 UTC on 13 July, with deleted posts counted if captured within roughly five minutes.

Historical buckets show Musk’s weekend output is volatile: a recent Lines.com market on the same window implied a 47.5% chance of 40–64 posts, the single most likely bucket but not a consensus, with alternatives collectively holding the majority [1]. That prior pricing reflected the same unpredictability of one person’s social habits rather than a shift in fundamentals, and the weekend compression made the outcome genuinely open [1]. The current 60% YES probability suggests traders are leaning above that historical median, but the variance remains high.

Programmatic traders should monitor Musk’s real-time feed via the tracker’s API, filtering for main feed posts, quote posts and reposts while excluding replies, and flag any posts deleted within five minutes. Key catalysts include SpaceX announcements—such as the planned V3 Starlink deployment during the 13th Starship test flight next week—which often trigger bursts of posting [5], and any regulatory or legal developments, including the recent rejection of Musk’s bid to set aside a Twitter fraud verdict [8]. Traders should also watch for X platform updates, such as the new Community Notes direct-message feature, which Musk has announced and which can spur engagement spikes [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.