Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether the United States formally initiates withdrawal from NATO or submits an official notice of denunciation before the end of 2026. This market resolves to "Yes" only if the US Government delivers that notice to the depositary state, triggering the one-year exit clause under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Historically, no member has ever withdrawn from NATO, making the current 5% crowd-implied probability a reflection of legal and political hurdles rather than precedent. The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act explicitly prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing without a two-thirds Senate majority or congressional approval, creating a significant statutory barrier [2][4]. While constitutional arguments about presidential foreign policy authority remain unresolved, the procedural requirement for congressional assent means a formal exit is unlikely without a major political shift [1][5].

Traders should monitor scheduled congressional hearings on defence policy, statements from the White House regarding NATO commitments, and any legislative attempts to amend the 2024 NDAA [2]. Recent commentary from President Trump has reiterated his desire to leave NATO, citing allies' refusal to patrol the Strait of Hormuz, though his reasoning is contested by NATO engagement rules [3]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by setting conditional orders tied to news feeds announcing a formal notice of denunciation, as the one-year waiting period is the definitive trigger for resolution [2]. Absent such an official submission, the market will resolve to "No".

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.