Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is really asking whether any additional state will publicly and formally normalise relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the 2026 deadline. The current 6% implied probability is consistent with a low-base-rate event: the Accords began with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco in 2020, with Sudan associated but not fully consummated, and later Kazakhstan was reported as joining in a largely symbolic move; that mix shows the mechanism exists, but new signatories are rare and typically need explicit political cover from both sides.[1][4][11]

For a trader running this programmatically, the key is to treat it as an event-driven market rather than a slow drift line. The strongest catalysts are official communiqués, leader visits, US-brokered announcements, and any language that explicitly ties a deal to the Abraham Accords rather than to generic bilateral ties; Reuters noted in May that Trump had spoken with leaders including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and others about joining, but at that point no country besides Pakistan had publicly responded, which underlines how much of the thesis depends on concrete follow-through rather than headlines alone.[9] AP’s reporting on Kazakhstan also matters because it shows the market can move on a formal “participant” framing even when the diplomatic substance is limited.[11]

From a tooling angle, the cleanest approach is to watch for a narrow set of trigger phrases in official statements and wire coverage, then map them to settlement language: “signed”, “normalisation”, “Abraham Accords”, or “continuation of the Accords”. Markets like this can gap on a single announcement, so conditional orders and automated alerts keyed to government press releases, summit schedules, and US mediation activity are more useful than broad sentiment monitoring; Polymarket’s current field is spread across several candidates, with Somaliland leading and Jordan also near the front, which suggests traders are pricing a fragmented set of plausible pathways rather than one clear frontrunner.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.