Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would have to resign, be permanently removed, or otherwise stop being president before 31 December 2026 for this market to pay out “Yes”. The contract does not care about temporary transfers of power, so programmatic traders should filter out short-lived 25th Amendment scenarios and only flag events that amount to a final exit from office. With the crowd at 7% YES, the implied view is that an early departure is possible but still distinctly low-probability.[5][9]

The main historical frame is rarity: modern U.S. presidents almost always finish their terms, and when they do not, it is usually because of resignation, death, or an exceptional constitutional crisis. Trump is currently in his second presidency, which began in January 2025, and the regular term runs to January 2029, so the market is effectively pricing a break from the normal constitutional path rather than a routine election outcome.[1][9][13] That is why traders often treat this kind of contract as a tail-risk instrument, with limited movement unless there is a concrete legal, medical, or political shock.

For monitoring tools and conditional orders, the key catalysts are official resignation language, a removal process that actually succeeds, or credible reporting of a permanent incapacity or forced exit. Recent coverage has included speculation from Democratic strategist James Carville that Trump could leave office early after the 2026 midterms, but that is commentary rather than an event signal.[4][6] The practical workflow is to watch White House statements, congressional action, major court filings, and breaking wires for any announcement that would satisfy the market’s immediate-resolution rule, because an announced resignation or removal would settle “Yes” at once even if the effective date were later.[5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.