Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026 is the real-world event underpinning this market, with the crowd currently assigning only a 9% chance to that outcome. Historically, no U.S. president has ever been removed via impeachment while in office; Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump were all impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate, with Trump acquitted twice in 2019 and 2021 despite majority votes to convict on individual articles[2][3][4]. The only president removed through impeachment was a non-presidential federal judge in 2010, underscoring that removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote, a threshold rarely met in modern politics[8].

Traders should monitor scheduled legal developments, particularly Trump’s upcoming criminal sentencing on 26 November 2024 for falsifying business records, which could influence political pressure or impeachment momentum[1]. Key catalysts include any House impeachment vote, Senate trial dates, and announcements under the 25th Amendment, though temporary invocation does not resolve the market[6]. Recent reporting from the BBC notes that past impeachment trials cleared Trump despite serious allegations, suggesting institutional resistance to removal remains strong[5]. Programmatically, conditional orders should be triggered only on confirmed House impeachment votes or Senate removal rulings, not on speculation or temporary health invocations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.