Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended following a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 that collapsed within a day. Current transit counts have plummeted from 35 vessels on 21 June to just 12 on 22 June, while five of eight inbound ships have disabled AIS, creating a profile of dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked traffic [1]. This near-standstill, driven by ongoing conflict and Iranian tolls, has halted a route carrying roughly 20% of global oil and gas, validating the market’s low 8% crowd-implied probability for a return to normalcy by July 7 [2].

Historically, similar disruptions in the region have resolved only after high-level geopolitical shifts; for instance, President Trump has explicitly tied the strait’s reopening to any ceasefire with Tehran, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress [2]. Programmatic traders evaluating this tooling should note that IMF PortWatch data often undercounts actual traffic due to GPS spoofing, meaning a 7-day moving average of 60 arrivals is a statistically improbable threshold under current conditions [2][3]. The catalyst to watch is the US naval blockade declaration and any sudden ceasefire breakthrough, as these are the only dependencies capable of reversing the current tollbooth dynamic [2]. Without a diplomatic resolution, the 60-arrival benchmark remains unattainable, keeping the market firmly in the “No” zone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.