Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to outbound commercial shipping as of mid-June 2026, with zero verified vessel movements over the past 72 hours, creating a severe bottleneck for global energy trade. This ongoing restriction directly underpins the 31% crowd-implied probability that transit calls will not reach the required threshold of 60 by the July 15 settlement date.

Historical precedents frame this low probability sharply; the strait was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the following day, demonstrating the fragility of any temporary access[2]. Such fleeting openings, coupled with the current absence of live transits, suggest that achieving a sustained seven-day moving average of 60 arrivals is statistically improbable within the remaining three weeks[1].

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should focus on immediate geopolitical announcements, peace talk status updates, and war risk insurance premium shifts, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening[2]. A recent Reuters report highlighted that diplomatic tensions remain the critical dependency for any change in maritime flow, meaning conditional orders tied to peace deal confirmations would be the most effective automated strategy[2]. Without a formal announcement lifting the suspension, the data required to resolve the market as "Yes" will not materialise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.