Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the permanent removal from office of a listed world leader before the end of 2026, excluding Viktor Orbán. With the settlement window closing on 31 December 2026, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "Yes" outcome reflects the market’s conviction that no incumbent leader on the board faces a credible, near-term threat of permanent displacement. This mirrors the Polymarket resolution where Schoof, the Netherlands Prime Minister, was assigned 100% probability after Orbán’s April 2026 election defeat, effectively closing the "Yes" angle for all other leaders including Trump, Putin, and Xi [1][2].

Historically, permanent removals are rare and typically stem from death, successful impeachment with removal, or election loss where the incumbent does not retain a caretaker role. Recent cases like Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension in South Korea do not qualify, as the market explicitly excludes temporary power transfers [5]. Programmatic traders should model this market as a binary event with near-zero volatility, treating the 0% probability as a settled state unless a formal resignation with immediate, permanent exit is announced. Catalysts to monitor include scheduled term expirations without renewal, such as Emmanuel Macron’s term ending in May 2027, which falls outside the window, or any unexpected death announcements [4][8].

Traders should watch for official announcements of permanent resignation or removal, not merely election defeats or interim suspensions. A recent news source confirms Macron has ruled out resigning and will stay until his term ends in 2027, reinforcing the 0% probability for his removal before the settlement date [8]. Conditional order bots should be configured to ignore all non-permanent transitions, focusing solely on events that result in the leader holding no office in any capacity. Given the absence of credible threats to the remaining leaders, the market remains effectively resolved with no actionable "Yes" positions pending payout [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.