Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is whether Israel and Hamas publicly lock in a **second-phase ceasefire agreement** rather than merely extending the first truce or keeping an informal pause. For a programme that scans headlines, the key distinction is binary: a formal, mutual announcement covering the next stage’s terms — withdrawal, security arrangements, governance, and disarmament — is what would settle this market Yes.

Historical pricing should be read through the pattern of the 2025–26 truce itself. The first phase was agreed and implemented, but the second phase repeatedly slipped because it was supposed to begin soon after phase one and instead became entangled in disputes over hostages, Israeli withdrawal, and Hamas disarmament; BBC and CFR both note that phase-two talks were delayed or stalled, even after US officials said the process had moved on. That makes a mid-60s implied probability plausible as a “process has started, deal still incomplete” number rather than a clean yes. Similar markets in this conflict have often repriced only when a signed text, cabinet approval, or a joint mediators’ statement made the next step explicit; absent that, traders tend to fade optimistic rhetoric.

For a programmatic setup, the main catalysts are official statements from the US, Qatar, Egypt, the Israeli government, and Hamas-linked negotiators, plus any published meeting schedule or mediated draft. Watch for wording such as “agreement”, “approved”, “signed”, or “phase two begins”; broader language like “talks resumed” or “framework discussed” is not enough for settlement. AP reported in December 2025 that Netanyahu said Israel and Hamas would soon begin the second phase, but later reporting showed the process remained contingent on unresolved issues, so a bot should treat similar headlines as soft signals unless they include a mutual, public commitment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.