Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz are the core real-world event this market tracks, with a current crowd-implied probability of 46% that at least 15 transit calls will be recorded on any single day before July 31, 2026. Historically, the strait handled between 75 and 125 daily crossings before the Iran war, but IMF PortWatch data shows those figures have collapsed by more than 95% since February 28, 2026, due to attacks on commercial vessels[8]. The week of March 9–15, 2026, saw 41 total calls, averaging 5.86 per day, which aligns with the current depressed baseline and suggests the 15-call threshold is a significant spike rather than routine traffic[1].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor IMF PortWatch’s real-time satellite feed for sudden deviations, as weekly revisions and monthly updates can alter finalized daily counts[2]. Key catalysts include any de-escalation in Red Sea or Hormuz security, new shipping lane announcements, or geopolitical shifts that might restore traffic flows; recent PortWatch reports explicitly flag trade disruptions from attacks as the primary driver of reduced volume[4]. Traders should watch for scheduled IMF data releases and any official statements from regional navies, as these often precede measurable changes in transit calls[5]. The market resolves only on finalized data, meaning a trader must wait for the next day’s point to confirm the previous day’s count before acting[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.