Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world trigger is whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gets back to a sustained pace of at least 60 arrivals a day on IMF Portwatch’s seven-day moving average before the August 2026 cutoff. That matters because the strait was running at roughly normal pre-war volumes of about 125 to 140 passages a day before the disruption, but then collapsed to a trickle as conflict, safety warnings and ad hoc closures reduced commercial transits to single digits on some days.[2][3][15]

For probability reading, the key historical analogue is not a one-day rebound but a durable return to the corridor’s prior operating rhythm. Reuters reported in April that traffic was still well below 10% of normal, with about seven ships a day versus roughly 140 normally, and later updates in June and July showed intermittent recoveries followed by renewed dips after fresh attacks and closure claims.[2][4][13][16] That pattern is why a 4% yes price can be rational on a programmatic basis: the market only resolves yes when the *published* seven-day average clears the threshold, so a bot or rules engine should watch the IMF Portwatch feed itself rather than headline claims that the strait is “open”.[1][16]

The immediate catalysts are security and routing changes: ceasefire durability, any fresh US-Iran or regional military escalation, mine-clearing or escort arrangements, and whether tanker operators resume normal lane usage instead of rerouting or waiting offshore. Reuters noted on 17 July that just three commodity vessels crossed in a day after renewed strikes and attacks on vessels, while earlier reports tied partial recoveries to framework agreements that still left traffic far below pre-conflict levels.[15][4] For traders using conditional orders or alert bots, the practical signal is a sequence of daily counts rising enough to lift the seven-day average through 60 and keep it there, not just a one-off spike.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.