MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market resolves on which player steals the most bases during the 2026 MLB regular season, with Nasim Nuñez currently leading with 31 steals and Bobby Witt Jr. close behind at 28[1][4]. The 8% YES probability reflects the difficulty of overturning a mid-season leader when the season ends in September, as historical patterns show that early frontrunners often maintain their advantage unless injury or a dramatic slump occurs. In comparable 2024 and 2025 seasons, the player with the most steals at the All-Star break finished as the official leader in 70% of cases, suggesting that Nuñez’s current lead is statistically significant despite the long runway remaining[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming roster announcements, injury reports, and pitching schedules for top speed players, as these dependencies directly impact stolen base opportunities. A recent ESPN analysis highlights that Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson are projected to finish with 41 steals each, potentially surpassing Nuñez if they remain healthy and receive consistent playing time through September[6]. Key catalysts include the July trade deadline, which could alter team strategies and player roles, and the September call-ups of rookie speedsters who might inject fresh momentum into the race. Programmatic approaches to this market would involve conditional orders triggered by daily stolen base thresholds and automated alerts for lineup changes, allowing power-users to react instantly to shifting probabilities without manual oversight.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.