Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has already moved from rhetoric to some form of collection, but the market only pays out **Yes** if Tehran makes a general official announcement and starts collecting a mandatory charge for commercial passage, not just ad hoc demands or security payments. Bloomberg reported in March that Iran had begun seeking transit fees from some vessels on an informal basis, while Reuters and later briefings from Iranian officials described a planned or ongoing system framed as “service fees” rather than tolls[1][11][12].

For probability reading, the closest comparables are cases where governments re-label a passage charge to fit legal language, while the operational question is whether the fee is formalised and broadly applied. Reuters noted Iran was discussing a fee structure tied to vessel type, cargo, and other conditions, and cited the UNCLOS constraint that bordering states cannot charge purely for passage rights[11]. That means the practical distinction for the market is between isolated enforcement and a standing regime with published scope, even if Iran calls it navigation, safety, or environmental services[6][7].

A trader running this programmatically would watch for an Iranian government statement, a decree, port or maritime circular, or a schedule of charges that applies across the Strait of Hormuz rather than one-off invoices. The key catalysts are official wording, commencement of collection, and whether the policy is general or limited to defined subcategories; reporting in May and July said Iran was charging or planning to charge “fees” for services, which is close in substance but still leaves ambiguity over whether a qualifying mandatory toll regime has been formalised[3][5][6][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.