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ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner

Five-platform snapshot of "ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

A 50% B 50% C 50% D 50% Volume: $83K Liquidity: $80K
Open live market →
ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
A50%
B50%
C50%
D50%
E50%
F50%
G50%
H50%
I50%
J50%
Other50%
Ben Shelton13%
Frances Tiafoe7%
Tommy Paul5%
Arthur Fils5%
Brandon Nakashima5%
Jakub Mensik5%
Casper Ruud4%
Tallon Griekspoor4%
Mariano Navone4%
Matteo Arnaldi4%
Alex Michelsen4%
Hubert Hurkacz3%
Nuno Borges3%
Cameron Norrie3%
Alexei Popyrin3%
Luciano Darderi2%
Arthur Rinderknech2%
Jannik Sinner0%
Alexander Zverev0%
Daniil Medvedev0%
Andrey Rublev0%
Grigor Dimitrov0%
Stefanos Tsitsipas0%
Taylor Fritz0%
Ugo Humbert0%
Holger Rune0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime0%
Alejandro Tabilo0%
Karen Khachanov0%
Sebastian Korda0%
Nicolas Jarry0%
Alexander Bublik0%
Jack Draper0%
Gael Monfils0%
Adrian Mannarino0%
Jordan Thompson0%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry0%
Marcos Giron0%
Tomas Machac0%
Pedro Martinez0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina0%
Fabian Marozsan0%
Flavio Cobolli0%
Miomir Kecmanovic0%
Lorenzo Sonego0%
Roman Safiullin0%
Denis Shapovalov0%
Gabriel Diallo0%
Milos Raonic0%
Kei Nishikori0%
Vasek Pospisil0%
Pablo Carreno Busta0%
Dusan Lajovic0%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard0%
Corentin Moutet0%
Jaume Munar0%
Roberto Carballes Baena0%
Dominik Koepfer0%
Facundo Diaz Acosta0%
Max Purcell0%
Aleksandar Vukic0%
Marton Fucsovics0%
Hugo Gaston0%
Federico Coria0%
Sumit Nagal0%
Thiago Seyboth Wild0%
Rinky Hijikata0%
Christopher O'Connell0%
Daniel Altmaier0%

Market context

The ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 National Bank Open (ATP Masters 1000, Montreal), currently scheduled for August 2 – August 13, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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