Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been nearly halted for weeks due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, sending oil prices higher and disrupting a route that carries roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply[1]. President Trump has declared the strait’s reopening a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress and he has imposed a naval blockade against Iran[1]. Tehran has implied it may have laid mines in the passage, while Iranian media released maps indicating safe routes for incoming and outgoing vessels[1].

Historically, such standstills in Hormuz have persisted for months until geopolitical pressure forces a resolution; the 5% crowd-implied probability reflects this entrenched reality, as comparable disruptions in the 1980s and 2010s saw traffic remain below 60 ships per day for extended periods[1][3]. Current data shows a 7-day moving average of just 13.14 vessels as of 21 June 2026, far below the 60-ships threshold required for “normal” traffic[6]. Programmatic traders would model this by setting conditional orders that trigger only if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day average above 60, using bots to monitor real-time feeds from PortWatch and MarineTraffic[4][5].

Key catalysts to watch include Trump’s next ceasefire announcement schedule, any Iranian naval blockade adjustments, and updates on mine-clearing operations in the strait[1]. A recent NBC News report confirms that actual vessel figures may be higher than reported since some ships alter GPS tracking, but the blockade remains effective[1]. Traders should monitor IMF PortWatch’s daily transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, as only these are counted toward the settlement metric[1]. The settlement window ends 30 June 2026, leaving little time for a sudden surge to 60 ships without a major geopolitical shift[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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