Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Typhoon Dolphin has already been tracked towards Japan, with forecasts shifting between the main islands, Okinawa and the Ryukyu chain as steering patterns evolve. For this market, the practical question is not whether it remains a strong storm, but whether the centre physically crosses Japanese coastline before the settlement cut-off; that is a narrow, binary trigger that can be checked against JMA position advisories and corroborating news reports.[1][2][11]

The crowd-implied 100% probability is consistent with the way these markets usually price once landfall becomes the base case, but comparable western Pacific typhoons have shown that the exact landfall point and timing can still move materially within a few advisories. Reports in late July and early August pointed to a Japanward track, yet some guidance also shifted the path south towards Okinawa and the East China Sea, illustrating why programmatic traders often key off the latest official track update rather than older model runs.[1][9][13][15]

A power-user setup would watch the JMA map feed for each advisory cycle, then compare the storm’s centre coordinates with Japan’s coastline polygons and any recent landfall wording in wire reports. The main catalysts are track changes from the subtropical ridge, eyewall replacement and weakening over cooler water, plus any JMA upgrades or downgrades that change the expected landfall window; the market settles on the final advisory in effect before 15 August, so late re-forecasting matters more than older consensus.[1][2][4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.