US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The core event is a written US–Iran diplomatic instrument from June 2026 that opened a 60-day track towards a “final deal”, so the market is really testing whether that interim framework converts into a mutually signed or adopted final instrument by 31 August. For a programmatic trader, the cleanest approach is to track the instrument state, not the rhetoric: signed/adopted final text means **Yes**; a roadmap, memorandum, or extensions without final mutual adoption leaves the contract on **No**.

Comparable cases argue for caution with a zero-implied price. Reuters reported on 12 June that negotiators were “close to the finish line” and that an MoU could be signed in the coming days, but later reporting still described the text as not finalised or confirmed and noted that President Trump had not approved it.[9][16] Earlier in the year, Geneva rounds produced “progress” and “guiding principles” rather than a completed deal, which is the usual pattern in these talks: partial convergence is common, but the jump from framework to final written settlement is the hard step.[2][3][4]

The main catalysts are procedural rather than headline-driven. Watch for any announcement that the June framework has been formally converted into a final document, any scheduled technical round or leader-level signing, and any language from mediators or the parties indicating that the text has been adopted rather than merely negotiated.[1][3][16] Recent coverage also suggests the agenda still contains material dependencies — inspections, sanctions relief, oil exports, and wider regional terms — so a trader following conditional orders should key off whether those items are resolved in a single written instrument or left for later implementation.[7][13][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.