Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran is currently under direct US pressure to issue a formal, public pledge guaranteeing it will not attack commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a demand central to ongoing negotiations mediated in Oman. The market’s 2% implied probability reflects the historical reality that Tehran treats control of this waterway as critical leverage, rarely surrendering it through declarative policy statements without reciprocal guarantees on naval blockades or nuclear concessions. Past instances, such as the June 2026 strike on a vessel that paused escort operations, demonstrate Iran’s willingness to escalate rather than issue unconditional non-aggression commitments, even when intermediaries like Oman report affirmations of commitment to international law [2].

Programmatic traders should monitor official channels for a specific declarative statement from the Iranian government or an authorised representative explicitly committing to non-aggression against all ships, distinct from conditional permissions for “non-hostile” transit which currently exclude US and Israel-linked vessels [3]. The primary catalyst is the scheduled negotiation round in Oman, where US officials have stated that a public guarantee of open lanes is a prerequisite for talks to advance [5]. Automated strategies should flag any announcement containing unambiguous phrasing such as “commit not to attack” rather than vague assurances of safe passage, as the settlement criteria require a clear policy declaration rather than implied behaviour [1]. Recent sanctions on Iranian banking entities further complicate the diplomatic landscape, potentially reducing Iran’s incentive to de-escalate without tangible economic relief [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.