0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero transits through the Strait of Hormuz would signal a total closure of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, halting roughly 21% of global oil supply and 25% of LNG trade. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the June 17 US–Iran memorandum, which guarantees immediate commercial navigation and mandates the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July, with Iran expected to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same window [2]. Historical precedent shows the strait can close abruptly: it was shut for weeks during the February–March 2026 conflict, dropping transits to near zero from a normal ~60 daily, and briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the next day [4][5].

A programmatically minded trader would monitor IMF PortWatch’s daily “Arrivals of Ships” feed as the sole settlement trigger, building a scraper to flag any zero-count publication between 26 June and 31 July 2026. Key catalysts include the 19 July US blockade lift deadline, Iran’s compliance with traffic restoration, and any escalation in US–Iran strikes that could prompt shipowners to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope [2][4]. Recent data shows traffic surging to 25 vessels on 25 June—the highest since April—following the agreement, but risks remain if Iran fails to meet its “best efforts” obligation or if war-risk cover expires [2][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.