Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026, captured from the one-minute candle. This specific timestamp dictates the settlement, meaning any volatility before or after this window is irrelevant to the outcome.

Historical data from early June 2026 shows Bitcoin trading near $72,145, a figure that has since corrected significantly as the market approached this date, with current live prices hovering around $59,650[2][6]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for lower ranges aligns with the prevailing technical consensus that the asset is stabilising within a $58,000 to $60,000 bracket, a range currently favoured by 100% of traders on Polymarket[1]. Programmatic traders would approach this by querying the Binance API for the precise 12:00 ET candle close, rather than relying on real-time spot feeds, to ensure the resolution source matches the market definition exactly.

Key catalysts to monitor include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and any major regulatory announcements scheduled for late June, which often drive short-term liquidity shifts. Recent technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is ranging between $116,600 and $118,800 on longer timeframes, though the immediate 2026 context points to a consolidation near $60,000[2][5]. A trader building a conditional order strategy would set a buy limit near the lower range of $58,000 with a stop-loss just below $57,000, capturing the potential upside if the price retests the $60,000 level before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.