Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the ongoing joint airstrike campaign by Israel and the United States against Iranian nuclear and military targets, which has intensified regional hostilities since 2025[2]. With direct diplomatic relations severed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and recent escalations including missile strikes and assassinations, the current crowd-implied probability of zero per cent reflects the stark absence of any formal peace framework between the two states[2].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2015 JCPOA or the recent June 2024 US-Iran memorandum of understanding demonstrate that even significant de-escalation deals rarely include Israel as a direct party, often limiting their scope to specific fronts like Lebanon rather than a bilateral Israel-Iran peace[1][4]. The recent US-Iran pact explicitly covers an immediate, permanent stop to military operations on all fronts, including the Israel-Hezbollah line, yet it remains a memorandum requiring sixty days of further negotiation before a final deal is approved by the UN Security Council, highlighting that even promising interim agreements are procedural steps rather than definitive peace treaties[1].

Programmatically, a trader should monitor scheduled announcements from the UN Security Council regarding the finalisation of the US-Iran deal and any sudden shifts in the joint airstrike campaign, as these are the primary dependencies for any potential peace catalyst[1][2]. Recent mediators have reported encouraging progress in Switzerland talks, with a focus on negotiating a lasting peace within two months, making the next round of US-Iran negotiations the critical schedule to watch for conditional order triggers[3]. The central sticking point remains Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its soil, a red line that has historically blocked comprehensive agreements, meaning any announcement resolving this specific issue would be the definitive signal for a peace deal[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.