Türkiye vs. United States

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Türkiye and the United States is set for Thursday, 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with kick-off at 7pm local time. This Group D fixture carries a crowd-implied probability of 23% for a Türkiye win, reflecting the United States' recent dominance in the head-to-head record. Historically, the two nations have met only four times since 1991, with the USMNT winning two, losing one, and drawing one; notably, the USA secured the last two victories, while Türkiye’s sole win occurred in 2003 during the disbanded FIFA Confederations Cup[3][6]. The current probability aligns with this trend, as the US has outscored Türkiye 5–4 in matches since 2010, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Türkiye’s 1.3[6].

For a power-user approaching this market programmatically, key catalysts include pre-match squad announcements, tactical dependencies on midfield control, and the impact of the new head-to-head tiebreaker rule, which renders this match mathematically irrelevant for group progression despite its competitive stakes[7]. Traders should monitor real-time odds shifts on platforms like FOX Sports, where Türkiye is listed at +276 and the USA at -117, indicating a clear market lean toward the American side[2]. Recent coverage from U.S. Soccer highlights the USMNT’s reliance on players like Brenden Aaronson and Patrick Agyemang, whose fitness and form will directly influence conditional order execution in copy-trading bots[3]. The over/under 2.5 goals line at -161 suggests an expectation of a high-scoring contest, a factor to integrate into algorithmic models for conditional betting strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.