Norway vs. France

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup group stage match between Norway and France is set for Friday, 26 June 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Boston, kicking off at 3pm local time. This fixture represents a critical moment in the tournament, with Norway currently holding a 19% crowd-implied probability of winning against a historically dominant French side.

Historically, France leads the overall head-to-head record with seven wins across 15 meetings, while Norway has secured four victories and four draws, though recent encounters since 2010 show a more balanced split with one win each in two games[9][8]. Norway’s current form is strong, having won their first two World Cup group games, including a 3-2 victory over Senegal with goals from Erling Haaland and Marcus Pedersen[5], yet they face a France squad that has moved up to second in the FIFA Rankings and features a potential Mbappé-Olise partnership hinting at a long-term alliance[3]. For a power-user evaluating programmatic tools, this market offers a clear conditional order setup: if Norway’s win probability dips below 15% pre-match, copy-trading bots could execute short positions based on France’s superior historical scoring average (5 goals in 2 games since 2010 versus Norway’s 2)[8].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and any late injury updates, particularly regarding France’s key attackers, as these dependencies directly impact the 19% probability threshold. Recent coverage highlights Mbappé and Olise’s emerging partnership as a catalyst for France’s offensive strength, which could further suppress Norway’s win chances if both are confirmed fit[3]. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, real-time data feeds from apps tracking live odds will be essential for executing conditional orders before the match concludes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. France on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.