Egypt vs. IR Iran

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Egypt and IR Iran takes place on Friday, 26 June 2026 in Seattle, with the crowd-implied probability of an Egyptian win currently at 25%. This single fixture determines the outcome of the prediction market, where settlement occurs shortly after the game concludes at 03:00 UTC on 27 June.

Historically, Egypt’s recent head-to-head record against Iran shows two wins and one loss in their last five encounters, averaging 1.2 points per match, while Iran has struggled to progress from World Cup group stages despite seven appearances[3][6]. Comparable World Cup group matches involving these nations have often been tight, with Iran’s defensive resilience frequently limiting high-scoring outcomes, a pattern that contextualises the modest 25% probability for an Egyptian victory rather than a dominant one.

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time announcements regarding in-stadium Pride activities, as the Iran Football Federation has formally requested FIFA to prohibit LGBTQ+ promotional ceremonies, potentially influencing crowd dynamics or player focus[2]. Additionally, conditional order strategies must account for the over-2.5 goals trend seen in both teams’ recent matches against New Zealand, where Egypt won 3-1 and Iran drew 2-2, suggesting a higher likelihood of goals that could shift conditional probabilities mid-game[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Egypt vs. IR Iran across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.